Bullshit detection | Wall Street Financier: Notes from High Altitude© https://wallstreetdealmaker.com He who makes a beast out of himself gets rid of the pain of being a man. Sat, 23 Apr 2022 00:55:56 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://i0.wp.com/wallstreetdealmaker.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/pitbullgif.gif?fit=32%2C22&ssl=1 Bullshit detection | Wall Street Financier: Notes from High Altitude© https://wallstreetdealmaker.com 32 32 155119938 Finfluencers https://wallstreetdealmaker.com/2022/04/finfluencers/ https://wallstreetdealmaker.com/2022/04/finfluencers/#respond Sat, 23 Apr 2022 00:55:53 +0000 https://wallstreetdealmaker.com/?p=2602 If you haven’t noticed there’s a new term in town: finfluencer(s). From Bloomberg, Sept. 21, 2021: “Wealthfront, another robo adviser, has partnered with about 15 influencers including Haley Sacks — known on Instagram as Mrs. Dow Jones — according to Kate Wauck, the firm’s chief communications officer.  “Quite frankly, they’re just … Continue ReadingFinfluencers

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If you haven’t noticed there’s a new term in town: finfluencer(s).

From Bloomberg, Sept. 21, 2021:

Wealthfront, another robo adviser, has partnered with about 15 influencers including Haley Sacks — known on Instagram as Mrs. Dow Jones — according to Kate Wauck, the firm’s chief communications officer. 

“Quite frankly, they’re just better at telling our story than we are,” she said. 

Bloomberg

Until last year, Hankwitz was toiling away in old-fashioned finance, working on mergers and acquisitions for a health care company; making TikTok videos was his side hustle. Now, he’s a hot commodity to startups and finance companies eager to reach his 495,000 followers. Some of them have also hired him for marketing advice, had him sit in on chats with the CEOs, and have even invited him to sit on the company board. “

Bloomberg

“And stock trading app Public.com offered him a monthly retainer and company equity for a contract that includes replacing the Yahoo Finance stock charts on his videos with theirs.”

So it’s not just the women parlaying their trolling for dollars, but the finfucks as well.

Tik-Tok, Tik-Tok.

Finfluencers

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Celebrating our 8th Year https://wallstreetdealmaker.com/2022/01/celebrating-the-8th-year/ https://wallstreetdealmaker.com/2022/01/celebrating-the-8th-year/#respond Tue, 11 Jan 2022 03:48:12 +0000 https://wallstreetdealmaker.com/?p=2552 It was in January eight years ago this blog started as a private aviation pictures collection. 8 years later we are the best men’s lifestyle and finance community source of information. In remembrance of our roots, I’ve enclosed a link to Corporate Investor’s Official Guide to Aircraft Registration 2022. But … Continue ReadingCelebrating our 8th Year

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It was in January eight years ago this blog started as a private aviation pictures collection. 8 years later we are the best men’s lifestyle and finance community source of information.

In remembrance of our roots, I’ve enclosed a link to Corporate Investor’s Official Guide to Aircraft Registration 2022. But our business now is far removed from business jets and aircraft.

We tackle a world upside down where everything is stacked up against the honest and hard-working man. When I talked about the fraudster Elizabeth Holmes four or five years ago, there were only unicorns in the tech jungle of Silicon Valley. Now there’re talking about “dragons”, private companies valued at $12 billion or more, net of capital raised. Axios The current U.S. dragons are: Stripe, SpaceX, Instacart, Epic Games, Databricks, Chime, Fanatics, Plaid, OpenSea, Miro and Grammarly. China has six, led by ByteDance. Dragons also are based in Australia, the Bahamas, India, Indonesia, The Bahamas and the U.K. [Axios]

I truly believe those fleeced nvestors who put money into Theranos did so to the extent they did because the Founder was female. The company lost most of the $945 MM it raised from investors when it dissolved amid regulatory probes and civil sanctions in 2018.

It’s all water under the water at this point. Look forward to more and egregious frauds coming out of Silicon Valley.

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Women are the mouthpieces of the elites https://wallstreetdealmaker.com/2021/04/women-are-the-mouthpieces-of-the-elites/ https://wallstreetdealmaker.com/2021/04/women-are-the-mouthpieces-of-the-elites/#comments Sun, 11 Apr 2021 22:06:25 +0000 https://wallstreetdealmaker.com/?p=2406 In this weekend’s Wall Street Journal, a woman (women are the portavoz or spokesmen for the elites, as we have repeatedly said on this blog), Jesse Singal, authored the article The False Promise of Quick-Fix Psychology where she beats on the concepts of grit (popularized by Angela Duckworth), power-posing (remember … Continue ReadingWomen are the mouthpieces of the elites

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In this weekend’s Wall Street Journal, a woman (women are the portavoz or spokesmen for the elites, as we have repeatedly said on this blog), Jesse Singal, authored the article The False Promise of Quick-Fix Psychology where she beats on the concepts of grit (popularized by Angela Duckworth), power-posing (remember Amy Cuddy’s Ted Talk from 2012 and her first book, she was later shamed for her contributions) and the implicit association test (IAT), developed by psychologists Mahzarin Banaji and Anthony Greenwald.

While we have explored -and validated-the concepts of grit and power-posing here since 2013, we haven’t talked about IAT.

“The IAT is the brainchild of APS William James Fellow Anthony Greenwald (University of Washington), and he began working collaboratively on it with APS Past President Mahzarin Banaji (Harvard University) and APS Fellow Brian Nosek (University of Virginia) in the mid-1990s. Over time, the tool has led to the examination of unconscious and automatic thought processes among people in different contexts, including employers, police officers, jurors, and voters.

The US Department of Justice (DOJ) has integrated findings about implicit bias into training curricula for more than 28,000 DOJ employees as a way of combating implicit bias among law enforcement agents and prosecutors. And in a historic 2015 decision involving fair housing, the US Supreme Court referenced implicit bias in a ruling allowing federal action against housing policies that have a disparate impact as well as being overtly discriminating.”

The Bias Beneath: Two Decades of Measuring Implicit Associations -The Observer, Association for Psychological Sciences Journal, January 31, 2018

Jesse was shamely published in the Wall Street Journal. Had she used her upcoming book for toilet paper, we wouldn’t be needing to empty stores shelves like last year’s.

Meanwhile, WSJ has refused to publish me, because it might tickle the elites anti-male rhetoric.

What’s up, WSJ ? How long do you think you’re going to keep the horses blinders on us ?

Back to the WSJ article, Jesse discovered black gold with a study that found “intelligence contributes 48-90 times more than grit to educational success.” No kidding, Sherlock. Too bad Jesse doesn’t understand, or conveniently chooses to ignore grit is a less-measurably character trait while intelligence is a polygenic, inheritable, relatively easily-quantified trait. Intelligence is peaking at age 20, after which is slowly declining. Grit ? It doesn’t peak at 20, it can shoot up to the skies at 60 ! Genius Jesse is trying to compare apples to oranges. As for me I’ll stop commenting on her remarkably worthless article.

The elites are shooting at us with non-sense. They always have.

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The Damsels in Distress https://wallstreetdealmaker.com/2020/03/the-damsels-in-distress/ https://wallstreetdealmaker.com/2020/03/the-damsels-in-distress/#respond Wed, 18 Mar 2020 06:49:57 +0000 https://wallstreetdealmaker.com/?p=2022 I recently came across this blog in Portuguese, Advice from An Old Whore, and their ruminations on the age-old story of the Damsel in Distress and the Savior Prince. "Talvez a história do príncipe e da puta seja baseada em um romance de Nelson Rodrigues e não de Walt Disney.Talvez … Continue ReadingThe Damsels in Distress

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I recently came across this blog in Portuguese, Advice from An Old Whore, and their ruminations on the age-old story of the Damsel in Distress and the Savior Prince.

"Talvez a história do príncipe e da puta seja baseada em um romance de Nelson Rodrigues e não de Walt Disney.
Talvez a puta seja subversiva demais pra fazer o papel da donzela em perigo e o príncipe covarde demais para salvá-la da torre cercada por dragões
Talvez nossa história esteja sendo escrita na barra da saia de juta de uma menina feia !
Quem vai saber?
Talvez a história da puta e o príncipe seja baseada na paixão das imperfeições um do outro...
Talvez a puta deva seguir na sua vida suburbana matando seu ego em copos de cachaça enquanto o príncipe confirma suas mini certezas banhado a whisky importado e jantares em coberturas luxuosas !
Somente uma certeza carrego junto de mim, o sorriso dos dois nunca mais será o mesmo!
Talvez o ditado ame e deixe ir seja a confirmação da solidão imposta pela circunstância de cada um , onde o amor de um para o outro vai ser carregado na dúvida atras do sorriso de "talvez poderíamos ter tentado! "
Mas não existe cicatriz a ser curada e nem palavras e atos a serem perdoados!
Amamos dentro dos limites de cada um!
Talvez a gente ainda se encontre em alguma curva
Talvez a história da puta e do príncipe esteja sendo escrita na barra da saia de juta de uma menina feia... A menina feia e seus sonhos encantados.
"

You’ll have to translate the text into your own language, English for example.

Should I do it for you ? What if I did in ONE SINGLE SENTENCE ? Can you do it ?

There’s no such thing as a damsel-in-distress. Or Cinderella.

Take a look at the Cinderella story. In 2015 another blog, Reviving Herstory with Sivan documents what you might not know about Cinderella. C’mon, I know you know at least a few Cinderellas in your own life, poor little souls that they are.

“Cinderella didn’t just look like she exchanged sex for money, she actually did. In the Greek/Egyptian story of Rhodopis, the Cinderella figure is captured by pirates and sold as a sex slave. She becomes a “free woman”—a kind of ancient Greek courtesan / high-class prostitute—when a wealthy man buys her off the auction block. She eventually marries the Pharaoh who finds her slipper, becoming the “Royal Lady of Egypt.”

From courtesan to queen. Is it any wonder Pretty Woman is considered a Cinderella story ?”

Sivan

Sivan tells “there are more than 345 known versions of the Cinderella story with more than a few surprises up their sleeve”. And that’s just from historic literature. Add that to the ones we personally know swells it up to 345 million.

“Cinderellas”, “Damsels-in-distress” are just another bullshit in the female-centric primary social order men have to live in.

That Old Whore in Brazil knows womanhood is selling men fake goods.

When I get to Brazil, I’ll knock on that whore’s door:

How much ?

No, I’m not selling anything.

I didn’t ask you if you’re selling. How much for the “poor me” women stories ?

How much you got, stranger ?

It works every time.

Pretty Woman character Edward Lewis (Richard Gere) is another fool who falls for the Cinderella story.

Celebrating and reviving the simp is a current theme in many blockbuster movies.

There’s a sucker born every minute. Women know that.

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Do you have a bullshit detector? https://wallstreetdealmaker.com/2016/11/do-you-have-a-bullshit-detector/ https://wallstreetdealmaker.com/2016/11/do-you-have-a-bullshit-detector/#respond Sun, 20 Nov 2016 00:41:00 +0000 http://wallstreetdealmaker.com/index.php/2016/11/20/do-you-have-a-bullshit-detector/ How good are you at picking bullshit spewed by other people ? A reasonable question to ask yourself, if you’re manager (and perhaps because you work for a manager). Maria Popova picked up on Carl Sagan’s Baloney Detection Kit, found in a Chapter in Carl Sagan’s The Demon Haunted World … Continue ReadingDo you have a bullshit detector?

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How good are you at picking bullshit spewed by other people ? A reasonable question to ask yourself, if you’re manager (and perhaps because you work for a manager).

Maria Popova picked up on Carl Sagan’s Baloney Detection Kit, found in a Chapter in Carl Sagan’s The Demon Haunted World book named “The Fine Art of Baloney Detection”. The article has been rehashed by Barry Ritholz in his Big Picture blog. I still think it worthwhile to quote those 20 patterns. I will add some of my thoughts as well.

  1. Ad hominem — Latin for “to the man,” attacking the arguer and not the argument (e.g., The Reverend Dr. Smith is a known Biblical fundamentalist, so her objections to evolution need not be taken seriously)
  2. Argument from authority (e.g., President Richard Nixon should be re-elected because he has a secret plan to end the war in Southeast Asia — but because it was secret, there was no way for the electorate to evaluate it on its merits; the argument amounted to trusting him because he was President: a mistake, as it turned out)
  3. Argument from adverse consequences (e.g., A God meting out punishment and reward must exist, because if He didn’t, society would be much more lawless and dangerous — perhaps even ungovernable. Or: The defendant in a widely publicized murder trial must be found guilty; otherwise, it will be an encouragement for other men to murder their wives)
  4. Appeal to ignorance — the claim that whatever has not been proved false must be true, and vice versa (e.g., There is no compelling evidence that UFOs are not visiting the Earth; therefore UFOs exist — and there is intelligent life elsewhere in the Universe. Or: There may be seventy kazillion other worlds, but not one is known to have the moral advancement of the Earth, so we’re still central to the Universe.) This impatience with ambiguity can be criticized in the phrase: absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
  5. Special pleading, often to rescue a proposition in deep rhetorical trouble (e.g., How can a merciful God condemn future generations to torment because, against orders, one woman induced one man to eat an apple? Special plead: you don’t understand the subtle Doctrine of Free Will. Or: How can there be an equally godlike Father, Son, and Holy Ghost in the same Person? Special plead: You don’t understand the Divine Mystery of the Trinity. Or: How could God permit the followers of Judaism, Christianity, and Islam — each in their own way enjoined to heroic measures of loving kindness and compassion — to have perpetrated so much cruelty for so long? Special plead: You don’t understand Free Will again. And anyway, God moves in mysterious ways.)
  6. Begging the question, also called assuming the answer (e.g., We must institute the death penalty to discourage violent crime. But does the violent crime rate in fact fall when the death penalty is imposed? Or: The stock market fell yesterday because of a technical adjustment and profit-taking by investors — but is there any independent evidence for the causal role of “adjustment” and profit-taking; have we learned anything at all from this purported explanation?)
  7.  Observational selection, also called the enumeration of favorable circumstances, or as the philosopher Francis Bacon described it, counting the hits and forgetting the misses (e.g., A state boasts of the Presidents it has produced, but is silent on its serial killers)
  8. Statistics of small numbers — a close relative of observational selection (e.g., “They say 1 out of every 5 people is Chinese. How is this possible? I know hundreds of people, and none of them is Chinese. Yours truly.” Or: “I’ve thrown three sevens in a row. Tonight I can’t lose.” 
  9. Misunderstanding of the nature of statistics (e.g., President Dwight Eisenhower expressing astonishment and alarm on discovering that fully half of all Americans have below average intelligence);
  10.  Inconsistency (e.g., Prudently plan for the worst of which a potential military adversary is capable, but thriftily ignore scientific projections on environmental dangers because they’re not “proved.” Or: Attribute the declining life expectancy in the former Soviet Union to the failures of communism many years ago, but never attribute the high infant mortality rate in the United States (now highest of the major industrial nations) to the failures of capitalism. Or: Consider it reasonable for the Universe to continue to exist forever into the future, but judge absurd the possibility that it has infinite duration into the past);
  11. Non sequitur — Latin for “It doesn’t follow” (e.g., Our nation will prevail because God is great. But nearly every nation pretends this to be true; the German formulation was “Gott mit uns”). Often those falling into the non sequitur fallacy have simply failed to recognize alternative possibilities;
  12. Post hoc, ergo propter hoc — Latin for “It happened after, so it was caused by” (e.g., Jaime Cardinal Sin, Archbishop of Manila: “I know of … a 26-year-old who looks 60 because she takes [contraceptive] pills.” Or: Before women got the vote, there were no nuclear weapons)
  13. Meaningless question (e.g., What happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object? But if there is such a thing as an irresistible force there can be no immovable objects, and vice versa)
  14. Excluded middle, or false dichotomy — considering only the two extremes in a continuum of intermediate possibilities (e.g., “Sure, take his side; my husband’s perfect; I’m always wrong.” Or: “Either you love your country or you hate it.” Or: “If you’re not part of the solution, you’re part of the problem”)
  15. Short-term vs. long-term — a subset of the excluded middle, but so important I’ve pulled it out for special attention (e.g., We can’t afford programs to feed malnourished children and educate pre-school kids. We need to urgently deal with crime on the streets. Or: Why explore space or pursue fundamental science when we have so huge a budget deficit?);
  16. Slippery slope, related to excluded middle (e.g., If we allow abortion in the first weeks of pregnancy, it will be impossible to prevent the killing of a full-term infant. Or, conversely: If the state prohibits abortion even in the ninth month, it will soon be telling us what to do with our bodies around the time of conception);
  17. Confusion of correlation and causation (e.g., A survey shows that more college graduates are homosexual than those with lesser education; therefore education makes people gay. Or: Andean earthquakes are correlated with closest approaches of the planet Uranus; therefore — despite the absence of any such correlation for the nearer, more massive planet Jupiter — the latter causes the former)
  18. Straw man — caricaturing a position to make it easier to attack (e.g., Scientists suppose that living things simply fell together by chance — a formulation that willfully ignores the central Darwinian insight, that Nature ratchets up by saving what works and discarding what doesn’t. Or — this is also a short-term/long-term fallacy — environmentalists care more for snail darters and spotted owls than they do for people)
  19. Suppressed evidence, or half-truths (e.g., An amazingly accurate and widely quoted “prophecy” of the assassination attempt on President Reagan is shown on television; but — an important detail — was it recorded before or after the event? Or: These government abuses demand revolution, even if you can’t make an omelette without breaking some eggs. Yes, but is this likely to be a revolution in which far more people are killed than under the previous regime? What does the experience of other revolutions suggest? Are all revolutions against oppressive regimes desirable and in the interests of the people?)
  20. Weasel words (e.g., The separation of powers of the U.S. Constitution specifies that the United States may not conduct a war without a declaration by Congress. On the other hand, Presidents are given control of foreign policy and the conduct of wars, which are potentially powerful tools for getting themselves re-elected. Presidents of either political party may therefore be tempted to arrange wars while waving the flag and calling the wars something else — “police actions,” “armed incursions,” “protective reaction strikes,” “pacification,” “safeguarding American interests,” and a wide variety of “operations,” such as “Operation Just Cause.” Euphemisms for war are one of a broad class of reinventions of language for political purposes. Talleyrand said, “An important art of politicians is to find new names for institutions which under old names have become odious to the public”. (Maria Popova: The Baloney Detection Kit: Carl Sagan’s Rules for Bullshit Busting and Critical Thinking )

    In finance, if you read through 10Ks and listen through earnings calls notice how folks say:

    • “Intuitively, we’ve gained a lot of traction.” Translation: you either gained or you didn’t.
    •  “We’ve researched [this] conclusively…and Translation: He puts his conclusion before the facts
    •  “The markets are toying with us…Translation: another smart set of words for upset performance.
    •   “We’ve been on the upswing since [the begging of the year]. I can’t believe it.” Translation: Well if you don’t neither will I.
    •  “I’ll take the blame. [says the CFO, CEO, whatever]. Without  fault, I…Translation: not really taking any blame.
    •  “Our vision for this [development] has been particularly effective. The stasis is… He is preparing you for the vision that failed.

    This guy has a nice video:

    Michael Shermer on The pattern of self-deception

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